Design and build growth engines that run on Bayesian Marketing Mix Models.

Bayesian causal Marketing Mix Models on Google Meridian, paired with model calibration and a hypothesis engine. Growth becomes predictable, privacy-proof, and ready to answer the what-if questions you can't ask today.

Bayesian Causal MMM Meridian · Open Source Geo-Holdout Calibration Ads Data Hub
The problem

The classic CMO problem, made worse by privacy walls.

“Half the money I spend on growth is wasted; the trouble is I don't know which half.” Every CMO, paraphrased
01 · Attribution

Tangled journeys

Customers cross devices, channels and apps. Last-click and platform-reported ROAS double-count the same conversions.

02 · Privacy

Privacy walls

Cookies, ATT and walled gardens have broken deterministic attribution. The signal you used to lean on is gone.

03 · Planning

Unscientific budgeting

Incrementality and what-if questions are treated as unanswerable, so budgets get set with obsolete heuristics.

The Trifecta approach

We are not just a platform. We are the team that runs it.

Four engines that work together, with humans firmly in the loop. Software does the heavy compute. People do the judgement, calibration, and quality control that turn a model into a decision your CFO will sign.

Pillar 01 · Model

Google Meridian

Sophisticated Bayesian causal inference that reveals the true, holistic impact of every investment, with full uncertainty quantification, at zero software cost.

Pillar 02 · Calibrate

Bayesian Calibration

Continuous geo-holdout experiments feed measured causal lift back into the model as priors, so accuracy compounds instead of decaying.

Pillar 03 · Hypothesise

Hypothesis Engine

Privacy-safe clean-room signals from Ads Data Hub. Cross-device journeys and data-driven attribution generate the hypotheses every experiment then proves.

Pillar 04 · Human in loop

Operators, not just software

Senior operators sit at every step. They tune priors, vet experiments, sense-check outputs, and translate posteriors into recommendations a CFO can defend.

Navigating growth

The questions you should be asking, answered.

The platform is built around three questions every growth team has and very few can answer.

01

Incrementality

Which spends are driving true business lift, separate from the customers we would have won anyway?

“What happens if I eliminate all non-SAN app network spending?”
02

What-if simulations

How does the system respond to a change in spend, mix, or channel before we commit a single dollar?

“If I raise TV TRPs by 20%, what new customer acquisition can I expect, and at what cost?”
03

Efficiency & scale

Where are we under-investing in channels that work, and over-investing in channels that don't?

“Which 3 channels should absorb my next million in budget?”
Two costly errors

The mistakes a real MMM stops you making.

Most growth losses live in one of these two buckets. Trifecta is engineered to spot both.

Errors of commission

Spending on channels that don't drive the business. Money wasted where we should not have spent. Last-click attribution loves these channels. The geo-holdout test exposes them. Trifecta surfaces them inside the operator console so they can be defunded with conviction.

Typical signature · High reported ROAS · near-zero incremental lift in regional test.
+

Errors of omission

Failing to invest in channels that do drive the business. Money never spent where we should have spent it. Often the slowest-burning, hardest-to-attribute channels like upper-funnel video, OOH, and podcast. They compound but never close a session.

Typical signature · Low last-click share · positive marginal ROI past current spend.
Growth engine architecture

Understand. Measure. Decide.

Three loops that compose into a single engine. Each one feeds the next, and each one improves the last.

Layer 01

Understand & model

Unified causal measurement engine
  • Channel relationships
  • Audience segments
  • Heuristic development
  • External & control variables
  • Seasonality & trend
Layer 02

Measure & prove

Bayesian MMM + Calibration
  • Causal MMM (Meridian)
  • Incrementality tests
  • Model calibration
  • Forecasting
  • Marginal ROI & response curves
Layer 03

Decide & act

AI decision layer
  • Budget optimisation
  • Scenario planning
  • CFO reporting
  • Creative & promo decisions
  • Conversational AI access
Trifecta Signal

Conversational decision layer for everyone who touches budget.

The single most important feature for your team. Anyone in the organisation can ask the model anything, in plain language, and get a defensible answer in seconds.

Plain languageNo SQL, no dashboards. Type a question, get a posterior-backed answer with 90% credible intervals.
Always liveReads from the latest posterior artifact. The answer reflects the most recent training run.
AuditableEvery answer cites model version, run ID, and confidence band. Decisions stay defensible.
Built on MCPAn MCP server over Meridian. Tools the operator turns on per client, no model retraining required.
Signal · Aeon Skincare
LIVE · POSTERIOR #28
If I raise TV TRPs by 20% next quarter, what new customer acquisition can I expect, and at what cost?
Expected lift: +4,200 new customers / month (90% CI 3,100 to 5,300). Marginal CAC rises from S$38 to S$46. The Hill curve flattens past +28% TRPs, so diminishing returns kick in above that point.
POSTERIOR · RUN #28 · CONFIDENCE: HIGH · 4 CHANNELS REFERENCED
Show me the optimal mix for S$1.2M next month.
Recommended split (90% CI): Paid Search 26%, YouTube 22%, TV 20%, Meta 18%, OOH 14%. Projected outcome lift: +11% vs current allocation.
BUDGET OPTIMISER · RUN #28 · CONSTRAINTS RESPECTED
/optimise · /forecast · /compare · or just ask… SEND
Delivery lifecycle

Design. Build. Operate. Transfer.

Five stages, repeated per client. The first run takes weeks. Subsequent runs are an operator job, not a project.

01 · Audit

Growth & data audit

Audit the spend, audit the data. Assess every investment and every data stream natively available in BigQuery.

02 · Ingest

Data ingestion

Capture, clean, inject every input — API or upload — into BigQuery. Signal separated from noise, mapped per source.

03 · Calibrate

Model calibration

Continuously run geo-holdout incrementality experiments and inject results into the model as deterministic priors.

04 · Hypothesise

Hypothesis formulation

Mine Ads Data Hub DDA data for the hypotheses worth testing. Every experiment closes a loop the model needs closed.

05 · Democratise

Put it in everyone's chat

Connect Meridian to an MCP server. Anyone in the org can query the MMM in plain language, then act on what it says.

Internalise the engine

Growth is too important to be outsourced.

Growth is the lifeblood of the business. It cannot live with consultants or third-party platforms. It has to be managed and diffused from inside the organisation, with democratic access to all.

We design

Your growth engine

Per-brand model archetype, prior catalogue, channel taxonomy and experiment cadence. Designed around your business, not a generic template.

We build & operate

The platform around it

Two operators run the data pipelines, calibration loops and training runs while the engine matures inside your cloud, from month one to month twelve.

Then we transfer

Ownership to you

The model, the data, the priors, the playbook. All in your GCP project. We hand the operator console and Signal to your team. The engine is yours.

Poor MMM practices

Five anti-patterns we refuse to repeat.

If you've tried MMM before and it didn't stick, one of these is usually why.

Anti-pattern 01

Annual planning cycles

Engaging MMM once a year. The world is dynamic. The planning cycle must be quarters or weeks, not seasons.

Anti-pattern 02

Post-report abandonment

Letting data ingestion and Bayesian priors decay after the consultant report ships. A static MMM is a dead MMM.

Anti-pattern 03

Irregular prior updates

Not feeding priors systematically keeps models unintelligent. Regular updates compound into real knowledge.

Anti-pattern 04

Ignoring Ads Data Hub

Overlooking the only privacy-safe clean-room for cross-device customer journey insights, out of the box and at scale.

Anti-pattern 05

Lack of democratisation

MMM has to be accessible via conversational AI. Without that, it never becomes part of the company's growth DNA.

Engagement details

Frequently asked questions.

Trifecta is built for serious growth budgets. Here's what we look for and what we charge.

Minimum annual spend
Requires at least US$1M / year on paid media, advertising and marketing combined.
Data duration
At least 2 years of weekly time-series to account for seasonality. Larger datasets are preferred.
Supported data types
Any time-series variable. Competitor activity, offline media, stock volatility (VIX), weather, query volume. Any signal that moves.
Ideal tech stack
BigQuery is the preferred warehouse. The engine runs on Google Meridian with Vertex AI.
Costs & expertise
Setup from US$10K. Expert engagements average US$50K+ per year. Built on open-source models, with zero software licence cost.
Expected ROI
Conservatively, 15%+ more outcomes at the same cost, or 15%+ cost reduction at the same outcomes.
The team

Operators across the region. Advisors at the edges.

Partners who run the engagement, supported by domain advisors with deep MMM and category expertise. HQ Singapore · Indonesia.

Co-Founder & Partner
RB

Rajeev Bala

Marketing Science & Business

30+ years in performance media, globally. Most recently VP of Performance Marketing at Tokopedia. Previously Global Managing Director of Havas Performance, leading the performance media practice across the network.

Measurement · Havas · Tokopedia
Co-Founder & MD, Midpoint Global
SU

Sai Uday

Regional Growth · Indonesia

15+ years in data & analytics. Leads Midpoint Global in Indonesia and the wider archipelago. Deep data and analytics expertise across South-East Asian media, retail and consumer businesses.

South-East Asia · Midpoint Global · MD
Co-Founder & Partner
RN

Rahul Nambiar

Commercial & Technology

20+ years in performance media, marketing & analytics. An entrepreneur who bootstrapped his own performance agency from zero, then exited it to Dentsu. Brings the commercial and technology lens.

Commercial · Entrepreneur · Exit to Dentsu
Solutions Architecture
RF

Rivaldi Fawzian

Solutions Architect

Leads solutions architecture across data platform and AI delivery engagements, bridging business requirements with scalable technical design.

Architecture · Data Platform · AI
Analytics
RL

Richard Leung

Sr Analyst

Senior analyst with deep expertise in data modelling, analytics engineering, and translating complex datasets into actionable business intelligence.

Analytics · Data Modelling · BI
Cloud & Data Engineering
SA

Shadiq Alatas

Sr Cloud & Data Engineer

Builds production data pipelines, orchestration, and lakehouse foundations across GCP and AWS for Midpoint's enterprise client deliveries.

Cloud · Data · Pipelines
Tech Delivery
HD

Harya Dimas

Tech Delivery Head

Leads technical delivery across all client engagements, ensuring engineering quality, sprint velocity, and on-time production releases across the Midpoint project portfolio.

Delivery · Engineering · Sprints
Cloud Engineering
DS

Donal Siagian

Cloud Engineering Lead

Leads cloud infrastructure and engineering across AWS and GCP environments, building the data pipelines, orchestration layers, and platform foundations that underpin every delivery.

AWS · GCP · Infrastructure
CTO & Advisor
JK

J Krishnamurthy

Technology Leadership

30+ years of technology leadership experience spanning enterprise platforms, data architecture, and large-scale digital transformation programmes across Asia and globally.

CTO · Enterprise Tech · 30+ Years
Sr Advisor, MMM
SK

SK Biswas

FMCG & Media Science

30+ years in FMCG and media, with deep expertise in marketing mix modeling and econometrics. Brings category depth across consumer goods, media planning, and brand measurement for Asia's leading companies.

MMM · FMCG · Media · 30+ Years
Let's build it

Your growth engine. Designed, built, and handed back to you.

Two operators, one platform, your brand. Bayesian causal MMM with calibration and hypothesis loops baked in, and a conversational decision layer for everyone who touches budget.

Singapore HQ
151 Chin Swee Road
#02-04A Manhattan House
Singapore 169876
FVG CAPITAL PTE. LTD. · REG. 201901598G
Jakarta
One Pacific Place, 15th Floor
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52–53
Senayan, Kebayoran Baru
Jakarta Selatan 12190
PT MIDPOINT TEKNOLOGI GLOBAL
Stack
Google Meridian · Vertex AI · BigQuery · Ads Data Hub
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